A complete-SCALE war among Pakistan and India turned into averted final month due to the fact India’s unexpectedly introduced bombs induced no damage; Pakistan’s reaction changed into measured, demonstrating capability however intentionally heading off Indian casualties; and prime Minister Imran Khan, apart from urging restraint, an independent research and communicate, released the captured Indian pilot as a ‘peace gesture’.
Such gestures had been, but, dismissed by India’s top minister. Despite India’s navy reversals, Modi and his cohorts have told the Indian public that their ‘muscular’ reaction to Pulwama was successful.
Any belief in India that its navy adventurism has ‘worked’ ought to erode the stability of mutual deterrence which Pakistan’s military response of Feb 27 re-hooked up. If New Delhi is convinced that Pakistan can be cowed via a aggregate of navy and diplomatic strain, it is able to sense emboldened inside the next disaster to conduct military strikes at a ‘better’ stage.
The BJP’s plan to ‘clear up’ the Kashmir ‘problem’ is to colonise it.
Pakistan should, therefore, take steps to reveal India’s falsehoods before, in the course of, and after the military exchanges of Feb 26-28. It have to market it that India’s bombs destroyed trees and killed a crow. It should display to the world, together with the human beings of India, how Pakistan ought to have destroyed Indian military objectives however selected no longer to do so. It ought to factor out that India’s captured pilot could have been humiliated and India ought to have had its nose rubbed in the dirt via requiring a minister or its air leader to return and retrieve him. Subsequently, it have to be made clean that Pakistan’s movements in opposition to militant establishments are designed to put into effect its very own national motion Plan, not in reaction to Indian or other external stress.
Islamabad have to now not assume that Modi’s hostility towards Pakistan will bog down after the Indian national elections. Aside from their ideological animus, if Modi and the Hindu alliance prevail within the forthcoming elections, it will improve their conviction that aggression towards Pakistan and the Kashmiris is a prevailing formula.
unluckily, India’s competitive posture is being actively recommended by using the us that is now firmly aligned with New Delhi in its worldwide contention with China. Pakistan enjoys a few leverage in the context of Afghanistan; but this does not seem to have averted Washington’s one-sided stress on Pakistan for the duration of and after India’s navy incursion.
yet, this does not mean that the Kashmir trouble will fade away. In spite of all odds — big Indian oppression, over 100,000 killed, Pakistan’s common indifference — the Kashmiris have endured in their struggle for freedom from Indian rule for over 70 years.
The modern rebellion in occupied Kashmir is led by way of the 1/3 generation of Kashmiris. It is entirely indigenous. It has endured for four years with out external guide and is likely to be sustained. Like Afghanistan, Kashmir is mountainous, and India is a big and fractured usa in which energetic insurgencies are under way in 119 districts (in line with former high minister Manmohan Singh) and can locate succour from diverse inner sources.
The BJP’s plan to ‘solve’ the Kashmir ‘hassle’ is to colonise it and transform it right into a Hindu-majority kingdom. A first step in this plan would be to get rid of Jammu & Kashmir’s ‘unique’ and independent repute beneath the Indian constitution. If Modi and the BJP continue with this plan, the Kashmiri resistance will manifestly intensify. The Hindu fundamentalists may then be tempted to lodge to the outright genocide of the Kashmiri Muslims.
because the blood flows, the Kashmiri diaspora, and sympathetic Pakistanis, will are seeking for to sign up for the freedom struggle, including from Pakistan’s territory. The Pakistan government will then face a binary choice: facilitate the freedom opponents or fight them as ‘terrorists’.
As Pakistan is pressured to extend cloth support to the Kashmiri freedom movement, struggle with India will become nearly inevitable. Each struggle recreation of a Pakistan-India battle indicates the excessive opportunity of its escalation to the nuclear degree. Recent studies have concluded that a nuclear alternate in South Asia will kill over 100 million humans, devastate the whole area and cause a ‘small nuclear wintry weather’ and international monetary fall apart.
it is time for the international community to awaken to the existential chance which the Kashmir dispute poses now not handiest to Pakistan and India however to the complete global. The UN security Council need to be activated to fulfil its charter responsibility to save you this type of disaster.
Pakistan should mobilise the international network to find a honest, peaceful and durable strategy to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. To this end, it ought to launch a properly-deliberate and funded campaign to: counter Indian propaganda regarding Kashmir; reaffirm the legitimacy of the Kashmiri freedom battle (which, underneath UN resolutions and international regulation, is entitled to struggle “ by way of all available way” for self-determination and to acquire “ethical and fabric” support on this war); press for an cease to India’s large human rights violations in occupied Kashmir; sell credible steps to avoid a Pakistan-India struggle, along with palms manipulate and CBMs; and demand an across the world encouraged speak, attractive Pakistan, India and the Kashmiris, to evolve a truthful and collectively ideal way to the Jammu and Kashmir.
eventually, Pakistan need to no longer be shy to raise the Kashmir problem and the India-Pakistan warfare inside the security Council. The difficulty is on the Council’s agenda. Pakistan’s stance is based on UN protection Council resolutions. There can be no unfavourable Council selection against Pakistan as long as China stands with Islamabad. And China will discover it less complicated to stand with Pakistan in defence of valid Kashmiri rights and the standards of the UN constitution, in place of to save you the ‘list’ of an individual.
the author is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.
posted in sunrise, March 17th, 2019